Sunshine and showers on Sunday. Submitted by Craig T on Thu, 03/02/2023 - 18:31, In reply to forecast busts by Nathaniel.Johnson, Submitted by Nathaniel.Johnson on Fri, 03/03/2023 - 10:31, Minor correction. This will impact the Friday evening commute with delayed travel likely. What its also doing though, is helping develop the kind of south-westerly airflow which is spinning in some of these periods of wet and windy weather, but also the warmer kind of continental air over the UK much more than average for the time of year.. The greatest chances for drier-than-average conditions are forecast in portions of California, the Southwest, the southern Rockies, the southern Plains, the Gulf Coast, and much of the Southeast. . The increase this year has been associated with an extension of the jet stream into the Southwest, which we typically do not see during La Nina, and I do not see how the "triple-dip" classification would change that. The February snow depth forecast shows continued increased snowfall potential over the northwestern United States and expanding over western and southern Canada. As we emphasize on the blog, ENSO may tilt the odds toward one outcome or the other, but the forecast is always probabilistic. How unusual were these Southwestern wet conditions in the first two-thirds of a La Nia winter? I am wondering if there is a possibility that the triple-dip La Nina event from 2020 could create some kinds of conditions that make atmospheric rivers more active, resulting in the occurrence of torrential rains over the western United States. For the first three months when winterlike conditions begin in earnest November, December and January abnormal cold is not expected anywhere in the country. This atmospheric river onslaught surprised many who were expecting a dry season, especially in the Southwest, not only because of the prolonged drought, but also because La Nia tends to bring drier-than-average winter conditions to the region. There certainly other teleconnection patterns that influence western U.S. precipitation, but most of them have little to no connection with sea surface temperatures. If youre struggling to identify any meaningful sea surface temperature differences in the map above, then you and I are in the same boat (5). This precipitation will either be rain or snow, depending on just how cold the air is, and where the freezing level is. WARNING: Long-range forecasts are rarely accurate. Much of this snowfall does not settle, and the figures for snow on the ground (snow lying) are much lower. We have seen a stronger-than-normal jet stream throughout the Southwest, which has brought the wetter conditions this winter. NOAAs Precipitation Reconstruction over Land (PREC/L). Below normal temperatures are favored from the Pacific Northwest eastward to the western Great Lakes and the Alaska Panhandle. The December snow depth forecast shows less snow cover over most of the United States and Canada. How harsh will winter be? WeatherBell is forecasting slightly above-normal snowfall, 125 percent of the seasonal average, in the Midwest, through the Ohio Valley and into the interior Northeast. Events were the coldest temps are in the central pacific and warmer temps in the east. The colder air is more easily accessible to the northern United States, which increases the snowfall potential if enough moisture is available. Submitted by Scott Yuknis on Fri, 02/24/2023 - 04:55, In reply to About comments by rebecca.lindsey. Could the jet stream also have influenced precipitation amounts ? As always, we start with the ECMWF, the most often used and highly regarded seasonal forecasting system. Submitted by Jiwon Kim on Wed, 03/01/2023 - 18:00. As that post notes, it's critical to understand the source of the mismatch models and observations (natural variability or model error or both? Of course, as with all these predictions, they are just indications of the long-range patterns. (Head to footnote 6 for all the gory math details.). It's difficult for me to see a clear connection between this triple-dip La Nina and the frequent western U.S. atmospheric rivers. One way we could try to address this question is to group both the wettest and driest La Nias over the Southwest in December-January and then see if there are notable differences in the sea surface temperature patterns that occurred during wetter La Nias versus drier La Nias. The Majority of these Atmospheric Rivers have missed this area and only the last month has some of the area received measurable Moisture. Hot Chocolate Warning In The East and South NOAA Climate.gov image, based on precipitation data from NOAAs Precipitation Reconstruction over Land (PREC/L). Conditions will be particularly cold through the middle of the month, with widespread frosts and a risk of wintry showers, even to low levels in some cases. This latest forecast cycle interestingly shows more snowfall over the western United States and also the Midwest. Based on the Farmer's Almanac winter 2022-2023 predictions for the upcoming chilly season, the report shows that . The pattern in the map is very weak, with very small departures between the two groups. The Met Office has warned that snow may appear across the north and west of the UK as early as 9 November. A blog about monitoring and forecasting El Nio, La Nia, and their impacts. Everything you need to know about the forecast, and making the most of the weather. Their precip map show wetter that normal conditions for California during these types of events. Quite unusual! And we can expect plenty of it this winter, according to the Farmers' Almanac, which recently released its 2022-23 Extended Weather Forecast. Submitted by Nathaniel.Johnson on Fri, 02/24/2023 - 16:22, In reply to Other Teleconnections by Bob G. The biggest wild card in the weather for this year is the (massive) 5 to 10% greater global stratospheric water vapor content due to the injection of seawater from the Tonga volcano. December finally brings the cold. The La Nina is set to break down going into Spring, with a warm phase (El Nino) chances increasing for late 2023. The average seasonal forecast for the United States and Canada shows a typical La Nina snowfall pattern. This is the part of the atmosphere where the air temperature is at 0C. As forecasted, the La Nina conditions will last over the Winter but will weaken. It's likely to be drier further north apart from occasional wintry showers, while rain and strong winds are more likely in the south, with a lower risk of snow at times. I will just add that I only focused on one impact and one particular region (Southwest U.S. precipitation), but it would be interesting to do a more comprehensive analysis of possible distinctions between La Nina flavors in the climate model simulations. NOAAs seasonal outlooks provide the likelihood that temperatures and total precipitation amounts will be above-, near- or below-average, and how drought conditions are anticipated to change in the months ahead. (Please understand we are not monitoring the blog 24/7.). Starting with the seasonal average for Europe, we can see another weak snowfall forecast similar to the ECMWF. Published March 3, 2023 11:09 a.m. PST. Temperatures will likely fluctuate between cold and mild, north to south, but will probably average out around normal. Submitted by Ed Ratledge on Fri, 02/24/2023 - 13:30. The almanac, which releases an annual long-range. There are also some hints of a cold event reaching down to the south-central United States. This year La Nia returns for the third consecutive winter, driving warmer-than-average temperatures for the Southwest and along the Gulf Coast and eastern seaboard, according to NOAAs U.S. Winter Outlook released today by the Climate Prediction Center a division of the National Weather Service. Feeling cold. This can be as low as 200ft or so above sea level on some days, the Met Office explains. August 29, 2022 NOAA's 2022-2023 Winter Forecast The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ( NOAA) makes long-range forecasts each month. Below-normal temperatures are favored from the Pacific Northwest eastward to the western Great Lakes. Perhaps more relevant for this discussion, the teleconnections forced by the MJO also can interfere with those of ENSO. The effects of air rising up hills and mountains must also be considered. With snow accumulation up to 88 inches, and entire summers with temperatures below freezing, the northern hemisphere was rattled with Satan's snow. In the Southeast, the Farmers Almanacs expected East Coast storms are more likely to bring rain, although chilly conditions that enter the region in January could cause wintry precipitation there, as well. January 2023 La Nia update, and the ENSO Blog investigates, part 2, SST - ENSO Region, Monthly Difference from Average, El Nio-Southern Oscillation - Indicators and technical discussions, Detecting El Nio in Sea Surface Temperature Data. Therefore, the variations among these 21 ensemble-averaged values, quantified as a standard deviation of 0.194 mm/day, largely reflect the effects of the different sea surface temperature patterns among the 21 La Nias. On average across the UK, there are only 15.6 days a year when snow is on the ground, though this rises to 26.2 days for Scotland alone. Yes, Tucson is in the part of the Southwest where the La Nina dry signal is usually quite reliable. Finally, the persistently positive SOI and MEI is an interesting observation. ) or https:// means youve safely connected to the .gov website. The UK gets on average 23.7 days of snowfall or sleet a year, according to data recorded between 1981 and 2010. Above all thank you for the richness of the information but i take note that some (data simulation methods) may tend to under-estimate (under fit) and others may overestimate (over-fit) an ulterior assumption , choosing the best ( mathematical) simulation methods may sometimes tell a good tale even with the presence of short data window . 7 day. Reporting on Earths changing climate and the people trying to find solutions to one of the biggest challenges of our era. For entertainment purposes, we also summarize the outlooks from the Farmers Almanac and its rival, the Old Farmers almanac but meteorologists put little stock in those predictions. Submitted by John N-G on Thu, 02/23/2023 - 15:04. The Met Office's three-month outlook, for example, suggests this winter is half as likely as usual to be classified as wet. Ideas and explanations found in these posts should be attributed to the ENSO blog team, and not to NOAA (the agency) itself. Places where precipitation was less than the 1991-2020 average are brown; places where precipitation was above average are blue-green The white box defines the Southwest U.S. region (32 - 40 N, 109-125 W) that is the focus of further investigation. Hopefully Nat will have a chance to turn this into a paper, but it will have to wait for a lull in his schedule. The almanac forecasts cold and wet conditions down even into Florida, with the worst of the cold forecast for January. Forecasts hint at abnormal UK winter: whats the long-range outlook? The signal-to-noise ratio is typically calculated as a ratio of variances, which are the squares of the standard deviations. Please choose your location from the nearest places to : Warnings have been issued for snow and ice by the Met Office, as a northerly airflow will bring some disruptive weather through next week. Even with the mild winter in the East, we had two notable cold spells, one in late December and the other in early February, so there have been some wild swings this winter! Starting with the seasonal average, we see below-average snowfall over most of Europe, which is indicative of a high-pressure dominant pattern. Oct. 13 2022, Published 3:08 p.m. Who we are, what we do and organisational news. Precipitation-wise, the period from November to January is expected to bring below-average precipitation and thus diminished early-season snow and rain chances in much of the southern half of the country, with the greatest chances of below-normal precipitation forecast from coastal South Carolina and Florida all the way to the shores of far Southern California. Drought conditions are now present across approximately 59% of the country, but parts of the Western U.S and southern Great Plains will continue to be the hardest hit this winter, said Jon Gottschalck, chief, Operational Prediction Branch, NOAAs Climate Prediction Center. Verification, impacts and post-processing, Climate information for international development, Science for Impacts, Resilience and Adaptation (SIRA), Atmospheric processes and parametrizations, Regional model evaluation and development, Environmental Hazard and Resilience Services, National Meteorological Library & Archive. But if these big picture findings hold up to further scrutiny, then it means that the typical or averaged La Nia precipitation pattern still may be the most reliable guide for seasonal predictions of Southwest precipitation in early winter, but we may have to rely on subseasonal and weather forecasts rather than seasonal outlooks to anticipate the sort of soaking that occurred in December and January of this winter. When we plug those values in, we get (0.725)2/(0.194)2 = 14, which is why I conclude that chaotic weather variations are about 14 times more important than the variations caused by sea surface temperature variations for December-January Southwest U.S. precipitation during La Nia events. The first day of winter and the shortest day of the year, officially arrives on December 21, 2022, but that doesn't always mean that the cold temperatures and snow storms will wait until then. Hourly. Sea Surface Temperature AnomalyDecember 2010. Although the official winter forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will not come out for another few weeks, the agencys Climate Prediction Center does issue official outlooks for temperature and precipitation up to 13 months in advance. So, that gets to the main point of the post. More U. S. drought in a second-year La Nia? Most of the continent is forecast to have less snowfall than normal, except for far northern Europe. We either require the cold air to meet a rain-bearing weather front and turn it into snow, or for the cold air to pick up enough moisture from its short journey across the North Sea, to form showers.. Whether you are a fan of snow, here is the latest roundup of what meteorologists are saying about the weather in the coming months. This looks close to a usual historical snowfall pattern in a La Nina winter. Several inches of wet snow are likely. From the abundance of acorns in the fall to the bushiness of squirrel tails, there are many fanciful forecasting techniques have been used over the years as a means to glean a glimpse of what the weather will be like in the upcoming winter. While it is still several weeks until the official start of winter on Dec. 21, several organizations are already unveiling their nationwide Winter 2022-2023 forecasts. Turning wet and windy from the west on Monday. UKMO uses a different parameter than the ECMWF but correlates directly with snowfall also. Empowering people with actionable forecasts, seasonal predictions and winter weather safety tips is key to NOAAs effort to build a more Weather- and Climate-Ready Nation. Below is an image that compares the latest forecast to the previous one. We cannot rule out the possibility that the model is missing some sort of predictable connection between a particular flavor of La Nia sea surface temperatures and Southwest precipitation. In the West, generally dry conditions will do little to ease the regions persistent drought. The January snowfall forecast shows more potential in northern and western Europe. No cold event has gone into the 4th year in the known records, so it is expected that we will see the last La Nina phase this season for a while. We're just a few days into meteorological winter and something rather interesting is stirring. That tends to redirect the polar jet stream down over the northern United States, with the cold air following. Fast, informative and written just for locals. But, with varying levels of success, they can paint a broad picture of how hot or cold or wet or dry different parts of the country may be compared to average. Probably the coupling of weak Polar vortex with the recurrent PV stratospheric warming has something to do with the Southward (equator-wise) migration of Atmospheric wet Rivers in mid to late winter , this last point is well-documented in many physical science papers that weak polar vortex post SSW events tend to measure more equator-wise migration of the Jetstream causing these atmospheric rivers to bring wetter than normal events to California and many mediterranean-like climates in the northern hemisphere late winter. $13.99 buys a year's worth of wisdom in the palm of your hands, online community access and a 2023 Farmers' Almanac ! Below-normal precipitation is also favored for the southeastern coast of mainland Alaska and for the Alaska Panhandle. By January, most of the country is mild, with lower temperatures farther north and a serious chill entering the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region by February, while the Southeast especially toward Florida, warms up. Pastelok said that the warmer ocean temperatures could help to fuel a potentially big system that could affect the East Coast in the latter half of winter. However, the Met Office has issued a yellow warning for parts of Scotland, including Highlands, Eilean Siar and Strathclyde, and Northern Ireland on Friday, meaning residents should expect heavy rain and some flooding of a few homes and businesses. The video below shows the developing cold ocean anomalies in the equatorial Pacific as we head deeper into Fall, boosted by the strong easterly trade winds. The image below shows the circulation pattern of a cold phase and its ocean-atmosphere connection. Is that a small effect, or does La Nia strength need to be controlled for? CPC Outlook for Winter 2022-23: The overall forecast for West Central and Southwest Florida for the upcoming winter is for a better chance of above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall as can be seen in the Climate Prediction Center Winter Outlook graphics below. A cold morning with a fair amount of cloud around, though perhaps some brighter spells, where there could be early morning frost. I follow that convention here, though Im really calculating the inverse, meaning the noise-to-signal ratio. As you can never trust a single forecast model, we always tend to use the UKMO long-range forecasting system along the ECMWF. The official NOAA Temperature outlook points: The official precipitation forecast is also quite similar to the latest model forecasts. The video covers both precipitation and temperature predictions, polar vortex, arctic blasts, typical snowfall, and regions that will see wamr and dry conditions for winter 2022 - 2023. Places where precipitation was less than 100 percent of the 1991-2020 average are brown; places where precipitation was 300 percent or more than average are blue-green. This seasonal U.S. Drought Outlook map for November 2022 through January 2023 predicts persistent widespread drought across much of the West, the Great Basin, and the central-to-southern Great Plains. Chris Bilbrey, a forecaster with the Colorado Avalanche Information Center, digs a pit with Rebecca Hodgetts, southern mountains lead . From that, you will see the snowfall predictions for the upcoming Winter and how they are changing as we get closer to Winter, with the forecast accuracy also increasing. Resources such as drought.gov and climate.gov provide comprehensive tools to better understand and plan for climate-driven hazards. These are blog posts, not official agency communications; if you quote from these posts or from the comments section, you should attribute the quoted material to the blogger or commenter, not to NOAA, CPC, or Climate.gov. But we can still see an area of more snowfall potential in the Southeast, which can be a single large event. The outlook does not project seasonal snowfall accumulations as snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance. If youre wondering what sort of calculations led to this conclusion, then I will give you all the details here. I'm pleased you're joining us today to discuss the Southwest Gas Holdings fourth quarter and year-end results. During this period, the prevailing winds continue to blow from the northwest or northeast. Also, we have the March snowfall forecast data. Submitted by Nathaniel.Johnson on Thu, 03/02/2023 - 08:32, Tucson Intl Airport had 1.0 inches of snow today (March 2) bringing season total to 1.5 inches. From my experience, the superposition of the ENSO and MJO teleconnections can be treated as linearly additive, so the MJO influence (like what's shown here) can constructively or destructively interfere with the expected ENSO influence. Drier-than-average conditions are forecast in portions of California, the Southwest, the southern Rockies, southern Plains, Gulf Coast and much of the Southeast. March came in like a lion, indeed. My calculation that follows confirms this suspicion. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says its own five-day forecast is accurate about 90% of the time and seven-day forecast 80%. Although it's several months away yet, a typical La Nia winter in the U.S. brings cold and snow to the Northwest and unusually dry conditions to most of the southern tier of the U.S., according. Surprisingly to me, the SST correlation pattern did not project strongly onto the mean La Nina SST anomaly pattern, as one might expect if the dominant effect was a linear amplitude effect. AccuWeather 's approach to concocting the winter forecast . However, there is another way which requires very little wind at all high pressure that becomes established across the UK for a long time in winter. Rick Wiley / Arizona Daily Star Facebook Here, I am focusing on the Southwest region south of 40 N that covers most of California, Nevada, Utah, and Arizona, in early winter (DecemberJanuary). According to the most recent update of our European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model maps, almost the entire country can expect average temperatures across the month to fall below the norm, perhaps even by 2C or more in some areas. This video and related map images can also be accessed online at www.climate.gov/winter2022-23. Given the distribution of snowfall anomalies, it shows a likely low-pressure zone over northwestern Europe. Understanding what teleconnection patterns we can and cannot predict on these seasonal time scales remains a big research topic. As the figure above shows, much of the western U.S. was pummeled from late December through mid-January, as a series of nine atmospheric rivers dumped more than a seasons worth of rain and snow in a few short weeks. These represent the range of variation when the only thing were taking into account is its a La Nia winter. Then, for each of those 21 years, I looked at the range of outcomes across the 30 simulations, thus including the chaotic, unpredictable weather variability. Submitted by Nathaniel.Johnson on Fri, 02/24/2023 - 16:47, In reply to DEC/JAN 2022-23 Southwest U.S. That part of the country also is expected to receive less snow than normal. Most of Europe is forecast to have less snow depth by mid-winter. Thank you for your comment, and I agree that the influence of the stratosphere on seasonal predictability and predictions is an important topic that deserves continued focus. TUCSON, Ariz. (KGUN) March marches in like a lion! Areas depicted in white are regions where climate signals are weak and Annual snowfall in the Twin Cities based on the modern 30-year average (1981-2010) is 54 inches, so AccuWeather's range falls between 40 and 67 inches. This way, we can use these anomalies as an indicator to better understand the current state of the global climate system and its seasonal development. It's hard to say without looking at the study, but perhaps that was an analysis of observed La Nia events. Water in Rillito River east of Swan Road and clouds from a clearing winter storm around the Santa Catalina Mountains north of Tucson on Dec. 12, 2022. Minnesota DNR. Seasonal Forecast for February - April 2023. Note that even the most scientifically advanced seasonal outlooks cannot pinpoint what the weather will be in a particular place at a particular time this far in advance. But that does not mean it has no impact. Submitted by emily.becker on Thu, 02/23/2023 - 17:04, Submitted by Bob G on Thu, 02/23/2023 - 18:30, In reply to It's hard to say without by emily.becker. Out West, even if temperatures are mild, the predicted above-average precipitation can help to ease the regions drought. Submitted by Nathaniel.Johnson on Thu, 02/23/2023 - 17:47. Thank you for your question! Turning mostly dry with sunny spells by afternoon, though a few showers in the west. Wetter-than-average conditions are most likely in western Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. 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I'm surprised that this is only the second La Nina winter with above-normal rainfall, but this document seems to support that claim (two of the "weak" episodes in the table with above-normal rainfall were not classified as La Nina by CPC). Its interesting to note that the La Nia dry signal over the Southwest U.S. appears to be a little more robust in February-March than December-January, as 15 of the 21 events classified as La Nia in December-February had drier-than-average conditions in February-March. View the weather with our interactive map. La Nina is a climate pattern that originates in the Pacific Ocean but impacts the global weather forecast. The largest departures were in Wisconsin. Place or UK postcode. The Met Office adds: What about the moisture? So, I did not see any obviously linear effect of La Nina amplitude in the observational analysis. The coldest periods will be in late November, mid- and late December, and mid-January. Confidence remains very low during this period. It also shows some snow scenarios over the eastern and southeastern United States. We can run multiple simulations in which the ocean is always the sameforced to match observed sea surface temperatures, including all La Nias from 1951-2020but the starting atmospheric conditions are very slightly different each time. We will see winds increasing out of the southwest today and tonight 20-30 mph, gusting up to 45-50 . Turning to Slide 5. Transcript (PDF): October 20 virtual media briefing on Winter Outlook 2022, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, National Integrated Drought Information System. Thanks for doing those simulations, and for sharing the results here. Rain, heavy at times, will sweep quickly north-eastwards across most parts. . However, December may put the brakes on this, with a strong signal for this month to be much cooler than average. One exception is southwestern Canada and higher elevations in the western/northwestern United States. Categories Long range / seasonal forecast. In addition to this, there is a reduced chance of stormy weather and gales. One of the main features of the UK's weather this year has been the seemingly indomitable prevalence of mild conditions, which has catapulted 2022 into strong contention for the warmest year on record. Widespread extreme drought continues to persist across much of the West, the Great Basin, and the central-to-southern Great Plains. All good scientific studies note their limitations, and this analysis carries some caveats that are familiar to most climate scientists. During the back half of the winter, AccuWeather says, colder conditions finally will enter the country and drop cold air into the central United States, bringing heavy snow to parts of the central Plains and the Rocky Mountains. Submitted by Bob G on Thu, 02/23/2023 - 18:35, In reply to sampling differences by Nathaniel.Johnson.
